Blitz Odds & Strategy: How Target Selection Affects Your Payout
Your odds in the Blitz casino game are set entirely by one choice: the target number of unique cards you commit to before the round starts. A 5-card target wins 82.03% of the time and pays 1.19x; the 36-card maximum wins about once in 15.5 million rounds and pays 15,181,603.62x. Every target in between sits on the same curve, and every one of them returns the same 98% RTP.
That means there is no target with "better value" — only targets with different risk. This guide publishes the exact win probability behind every multiplier in Blitz, explains where those numbers come from, and shows how to pick a target that matches how you actually want to play.
Key Takeaways
Every Blitz target pays 98% RTP (return to player). Multipliers differ only because win probability differs.
Odds range from 82.03% at 5 cards to roughly 1 in 15.5 million at 36 cards.
The deeper you go in a round, the riskier each flip gets — the 36th card busts 67.3% of the time on that single flip.
No betting system, streak reading, or pattern changes the 2% house edge. Target selection controls your variance, nothing more.
How Blitz Odds Are Calculated
Blitz draws every card at random from a full 52-card deck, so each flip is independent and any card can repeat. Your chance of winning is the chance that your first N draws are all different.
The math is straightforward. The first card is always safe (52 safe outcomes out of 52). The second flip has 51 safe cards out of 52, the third has 50 out of 52, and so on. Multiply those together for your target and you have your win probability.
For a 5-card target: 52/52 × 51/52 × 50/52 × 49/52 × 48/52 = 82.03%. The multiplier is then 98% divided by that win probability — 0.98 ÷ 0.8203 ≈ 1.19x, exactly what the game pays. Every multiplier in Blitz comes from this same formula, which is why the payouts and the odds always line up at 98% RTP.
Blitz Odds Table: Win Probability for Every Target
Here is the complete table — every target from 5 to 36 unique cards, its exact win probability, how many rounds a win takes on average, and the multiplier it pays.
Target (unique cards) | Win probability | Average rounds per win | Multiplier |
5 | 82.03% | 1.2 | 1.19x |
6 | 74.14% | 1.3 | 1.32x |
7 | 65.59% | 1.5 | 1.49x |
8 | 56.76% | 1.8 | 1.73x |
9 | 48.03% | 2.1 | 2.04x |
10 | 39.71% | 2.5 | 2.47x |
11 | 32.08% | 3.1 | 3.06x |
12 | 25.29% | 4.0 | 3.87x |
13 | 19.45% | 5.1 | 5.04x |
14 | 14.59% | 6.9 | 6.72x |
15 | 10.66% | 9.4 | 9.19x |
16 | 7.59% | 13.2 | 12.92x |
17 | 5.25% | 19.0 | 18.66x |
18 | 3.54% | 28.3 | 27.72x |
19 | 2.31% | 43.3 | 42.40x |
20 | 1.47% | 68.2 | 66.81x |
21 | 0.90% | 111 | 108.56x |
22 | 0.54% | 186 | 182.10x |
23 | 0.31% | 322 | 315.64x |
24 | 0.17% | 578 | 565.98x |
25 | 0.09% | 1,073 | 1,051.10x |
26 | 0.05% | 2,066 | 2,024.34x |
27 | 0.02% | 4,131 | 4,048.68x |
28 | 0.01% | 8,593 | 8,421.26x |
29 | 0.0054% | 18,618 | 18,246.06x |
30 | 0.0024% | 42,094 | 41,251.96x |
31 | 0.0010% | 99,495 | 97,504.63x |
32 | 0.0004% | 246,367 | 241,440.04x |
33 | 0.0002% | 640,555 | 627,744.11x |
34 | 0.00006% | 1,753,098 | 1,718,036.50x |
35 | 0.00002% | 5,064,507 | 4,963,216.57x |
36 | 0.000006% | 15,491,432 | 15,181,603.62x |
Read the third column honestly before chasing a big multiplier. A 25-card target wins, on average, once every 1,073 rounds — the multiplier is real, but so is everything between wins.
Why No Target Offers Better Value
Every target in Blitz returns the same expected value: for every 100 units wagered, the long-run average return is 98 units, regardless of which row of the table you play. Pick 5 cards and you'll win small amounts constantly; pick 30 and you'll lose for stretches that feel endless, then occasionally win enormously. Over enough rounds, both paths converge on the same 2% house edge.
So "which target should I pick?" is not a value question — it's a variance question. The right target is the one whose losing pattern you can genuinely tolerate at your bet size.
The Risk Curve: Why Late Flips Are the Hardest
Blitz's odds aren't spread evenly across a round. With every unique card that lands on the table, the next flip gets more dangerous, because more of the deck now counts as a duplicate:
Unique cards already drawn | Chance the next flip busts |
5 | 9.6% |
10 | 19.2% |
20 | 38.5% |
23 | 44.2% |
25 | 48.1% |
26 | 50.0% |
28 | 53.8% |
30 | 57.7% |
33 | 63.5% |
35 | 67.3% |
This is why long targets feel brutal near the finish. From the 26th unique card onward, every single flip is worse than 50% odds — and on a 36-card attempt, even after surviving 35 flips, the final card alone busts you 67.3% of the time. Reaching "almost there" on a high target is common; converting it is what's rare — and the multipliers are priced for exactly that.
Choosing a Target: Three Honest Approaches
Low targets (5–9 cards): frequent wins, slow movement. Win rates of 48–82% mean most rounds pay, but at 1.19x–2.04x, single wins barely move your balance. This range suits learning the game and long, low-swing sessions.
Mid targets (12–18 cards): the balanced band. Win rates from 25% down to 3.5%, multipliers from 3.87x to 27.72x. You'll feel real losing streaks — at 15 cards, a win arrives about once in 9 rounds on average — but wins are meaningful. Most players who want tension without lottery-length droughts end up here.
High targets (20+ cards): long shots, priced accurately. From 1 in 68 rounds at 20 cards to 1 in 15.5 million at 36. Treat any bet in this range as money spent for the chase itself. If a hundred consecutive losses at your stake size would sting, the stake is too big for this band.
Whatever band you choose, remember the averages in the table are long-run figures — a 1-in-9 target can easily lose 25 times in a row. Nothing has gone wrong when it does; that's what variance at 10.66% looks like.
Strategies That Don't Work in Blitz
Being direct about this protects your bankroll better than any tip list:
Betting systems (martingale and friends). Doubling after losses doesn't change the 2% edge — it repackages many small losses into occasional catastrophic ones. The expected loss per unit wagered is identical.
Reading streaks. Every round is generated independently from a fresh server seed, client seed, and nonce. Five losses in a row make the next round exactly as likely to win as before. You can confirm the independence of every round yourself — our Provably Fair Guide shows how verification works.
"Due" cards or lucky targets. The deck is full on every flip and the game has no memory. There is no pattern to find.
The only genuine decisions Blitz offers are your target, your bet size, and when to stop. Everything else is noise.
Bankroll Rules That Actually Help
Since no strategy beats the edge, the useful skill is managing exposure:
Set your session budget before the first round, and size bets so a normal losing streak for your target band doesn't end the session. At mid targets, that means comfortably absorbing 15–25 straight losses.
Decide in advance what a win does — banking a big multiplier and ending the session is a decision you make calmly beforehand, not mid-adrenaline.
Set loss limits and wager limits on your account so the boundary holds even when the session gets exciting. Self-exclusion is available if you want a longer break. Visit Shuffle's Responsible Gambling page for further assistance.
New to the game itself? Start with our How to Play Blitz guide before worrying about target selection. And if the player-controlled risk that defines Blitz appeals to you, our Guide to Shuffle Originals covers the full lineup of in-house games built on the same idea. When you're ready to put a target on the table, the odds above apply from your very first round.
18+. Gambling involves risk. Please play responsibly.
FAQ – Blitz Odds & Strategy
What are the odds of winning in Blitz?
It depends entirely on your target. A 5-card target wins 82.03% of the time, a 15-card target wins 10.66% of the time, and the 36-card maximum wins about once in 15.5 million rounds. Every target pays a multiplier equal to 98% divided by its win probability.
Which Blitz target has the best odds?
The 5-card minimum has the highest win probability at 82.03%. But no target offers better value than another — all of them return 98% RTP, so lower targets simply trade payout size for win frequency.
What are the odds of hitting the max multiplier in Blitz?
The 36-card target that pays 15,181,603.62x wins with a probability of about 0.000006% — roughly 1 in 15,491,432 rounds.
Is there a strategy to win at Blitz?
No system, bet sequence, or pattern changes the 2% house edge. Target selection controls how volatile your results are, and bankroll rules control your exposure — those are the only real levers, and neither creates an advantage over the game.
Does a losing streak make a Blitz win more likely?
No. Each round is generated independently from a new seed-and-nonce combination, so previous results have zero effect on the next round. A target's win probability is identical on every round you play.
